A U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela could ‘devastate’ its economy and further pressure Maduro. But how far is Trump willing to take it?

Now that the U.S. has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and President Donald Trump has declared an oil blockade, the results could “devastate” Venezuela’s struggling economy and put further pressure on President Nicolás Maduro and possible regime change, according to geopolitical and energy analysts.

The big question is how far the U.S. will take the sanctioned oil tanker blockade—Trump’s social media announcement was scant on details—and for how long, because it is unlikely Maduro would willingly step down in the near future, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

“This could be devastating. We’re talking about an economy where more than 80%—perhaps north of 90%—of the foreign exchange revenues for the government comes from oil. The oil is absolutely dominant,” Monaldi said, noting that Venezuela’s only other meaningful exports are modest mining and seafood industries.

The questionably legal effort—a blockade is historically an “act of war”—could result in “hyperinflation” within Venezuela, a further weakening of its currency, an economic recession, and a fuel shortage for its citizenry, he said.

Venezuela is h...