America’s high school graduating class is projected to shrink 13%. Colleges are already feeling the squeeze

America has spent decades building a sprawling higher education system around a steady supply of college-age students. Now, there are about to be fewer of them to go around.

A record 3.9 million U.S. students graduated from high school in 2025. But that peak marks a turning point: By 2041, the country is projected to produce about 3.4 million high school graduates a year, a 13% drop, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. 

Colleges are already competing harder for the students who are available and are having more trouble predicting which acceptees will ultimately enroll. Students using the Common App applied to an average of 6.56 colleges this admissions cycle, up from 6.37 a year earlier. 

That competition comes as rising costs put more pressure on college budgets. For schools that depend heavily on tuition to pay the bills, an empty seat means lost revenue; for the most vulnerable institutions, enough empty seats can threaten their survival.

“Nearly every college in the country is facing some kind of financial pressure,” Robert Kelchen, a professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, who studies higher education fi...