Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets

There is a new trend in prediction markets: betting on whether Bitcoin will go up or down in the next five of fifteen minutes. On Polymarket, a five-minute wager on the price of the largest cryptocurrency has garnered more than $60 million in trading volume in a single day, according to Dune Analytics.

The minute-by-minute wagers on Bitcoin highlight the relative simplicity of bets on prediction markets. As opposed to traditional sports betting, which have an array of complex numbers relating to the spread, moneyline, and total points scored, the prediction market interface has a lower barrier to entry. Users can see what percentage of their peers are voting “yes” about a certain wager and how many are voting “no”. 

On Monday at 1pm ET, some 73% of Polymarket were betting that the price of Bitcoin would go up in the next five minutes. After that five minute interval expired at 1:05 PM ET, the platform promptly served up a new wager for the next five minutes of Bitcoin’s performance and so on. Polymarket-rival, Kalshi, meanwhile is offering bets on whether Bitcoin will go up or down every fi...