Did California finish 2025 with booming confidence?

By one measure, Californians got a surprising boost of optimism at the year’s end.

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index for the state took its largest one-month jump on record for December. This yardstick of shopper psyche, created by polls that run to mid -month, date to 2007.

My trusty spreadsheet found the California index jumped 48% between November and December, putting the index at a five-year high. This jump passed the old record upswing of 47% in April 2009, when the economy was first emerging from the depths of the Great Recession.

Curiously, December’s record surge followed a year-long decline to November. The 24% confidence drop following Donald Trump’s election to his second term put the index at its second-lowest point in five years.

While these California curves were happening, nationwide confidence slipped modestly in December – only 4% – putting the U.S. index at an eight-month low. Clearly, an eye-catching divide.

How did California suddenly get a dose of happiness while national angst grew?

Also, it wasn’t just California’s wild change of heart. California is one of eight states tracked by the Conference Board. Texas was up 11% for December.

Big drops in confidence were found in Pennsylvania, down 20%, Florida, off 19%, and New York and Michigan were 12% lower.

A fix?

Month-to-month gyrations are rarely insightful, but giant swings are hard to miss.

Conference Boar...