From maritime trench warfare to a ‘sloppy peace’: Here’s how the Strait of Hormuz standoff could play out, according to Goldman Sachs

Unless Iran’s regime collapses, the Strait of Hormuz will never be open like it was before the war, according to Jared Cohen, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute and the bank’s president of global affairs.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched their war in late February, Tehran has discovered how much leverage it can wield over the global economy by closing off the Strait of Hormuz, he said Friday on CNBC. As a result, Iran will not let go.

“You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control,” Cohen predicted.

For now, both sides are observing a “sloppy ceasefire” where they refrain from launching ballistic missiles and drones at each other. But small fast-attack boats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are firing on commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, keeping the strait closed and energy markets in crisis.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has imposed a blockade on Iran-linked ships, even sending boarding parties of Marines to seize control of them, aiming to choke off Tehran’s top source of revenue.

Cohen described the standoff as “maritime trench warfare” with the U.S. and Iran each betting economic coercion will force an eventual surrender.

But from the perspective of the Gulf Cooperation Counc...