Home prices dip in 88% of California

Here’s some modest relief for California house hunters: values were falling in 88% of the state as 2025 ended.

To get a local sense of where prices are going, my trusty spreadsheet reviewed home value data from Zillow for 125 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, including 16 from California.

In the 12 months ended in December, values were down in 14 of the 16 California metros. But savings were meek, with the largest dip found in Stockton, off only 4% last year vs up 2% in 2024 and 36% over the previous four years.

But seeing declines is noteworthy because, as recently as March 2025, no California metro had falling prices. That was the end of a 14-month streak without any year-over-year decreases.

The late 2025 slips are a reminder that home prices don’t always rise. Zillow values in the 16 California metros combined have dropped year over year in 26% of months since 2000, mostly surrounding the Great Recession.

Compare that to the nation. In the 109 larger metros outside of California, just 39 had price declines – that’s just 36%.

But that, too, is above the national norm. Since 2000, those non-California metros have had declines 22% of the time.

Pricing also looked weak using Zillow’s statewide index, which fell 2% last year, vs. rising 3% in 2024 and 38% during the previous four years.

Nationally, prices were essentially flat last year vs. gains of 3% in 2024 and 43% in 2020-2023.

California’s decline...