Home sales just fell 3.6%—and the spring buying season may not save them

The picture of an American springtime usually looks something like this: sunny days, chittering birds, and, on many suburban streets, a congested driveway full of eager prospective homebuyers gathering for an open house.

Spring is usually when the U.S. housing market heats up, as potential buyers start shopping ahead of desired summer move-ins. But the 2026 housing market has gotten off to a rough start, as affordability concerns continue to weigh down activity and disrupt the industry’s seasonal rhythm.

Defying historical norms, home sales fell last month, according to data published Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Existing home sales for March dipped 3.6% compared with February, and were down 1% from a year prior. The drop—which pulled the annualized sales pace below 4 million for the first time since June—suggests high mortgage rates and weakening sentiment among homebuyers are already bleeding into spring.

“March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement, attributing the falling numbers to shrinking consumer confidence and a lower job creation rate.

The traditionally hot spring buying season has coincided with a souring economic envi...