Investors are valuing Polymarket $7 billion less than archrival Kalshi—and crypto could be one reason why

The prediction market space is one of the fastest growing in finance. Two years ago, Polymarket reportedly raised funds at a $350 million valuation. Today, the platform is in talks to raise funds at a valuation of $15 billion, The Information reported. But the windfall may be made a little less sweet by the success of Polymarket’s bitter rival, Kalshi, which was most recently valued at $22 billion.

The nearly one-third valuation discount for Polymarket could be explained by Kalshi’s stronger foothold in the U.S., where it currently holds roughly 90% market share, or by its stronger revenue figures, since Polymarket just recently started charging trading fees. But the reason for investors’ discounting of Polymarket could lie with a more idiosyncratic factor—the cryptocurrency token the company plans to launch, which makes it more difficult to gauge the stickiness of Polymarket’s current trading volume.

The recent divergence in how investors value Polymarket and Kalshi is n...