Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is shut down. The Trump administration says 9 million barrels a day are still getting out

The U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked over reopening the Strait of Hormuz as each side tries to see how long the other can hold out, and signs of significant oil flows out of the Persian Gulf indicate President Donald Trump is betting he has additional leeway.

In the past week, the administration has pushed back against the narrative that Iran has virtually shut down the critical choke point with the threat of missiles and drones.

That’s as traffic data since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed has shown just a trickle of ships are openly transiting the strait, suggesting another supply shock ahead for global energy markets. But more tankers are sailing “dark,” meaning their transponders have been turned off and are no longer broadcasting their location.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was almost 9 million barrels per day and credited the U.S. military as well as Gulf allies.

When combined with another 5 million to 7 million barrels per day shipped via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows average about 15 million barrels per day, he added in a post on X. That compares with 20 million barrels that were exported daily before the war.