JPMorgan analysis finds Trump’s tariffs are working on China—at a huge cost to American small business

A new analysis from the JPMorgan Chase Institute reveals that while aggressive trade policies implemented in 2025 have successfully driven a significant wedge between midsize American businesses and Chinese suppliers, the decoupling has come with a staggering price tag for U.S. companies.

The report, titled “Tracking international payments: How are midsize firms reacting to tariffs?” paints a picture of a business sector that is bending but not breaking under historic pressure. According to JPMorgan banking data on financial outflows of firms with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, the cost of importing goods has skyrocketed—and American companies are bearing the brunt.

While these companies scramble for alternative sources to Chinese manufacturing, they’re paying a big price on imports. Following the implementation of tariff rate increases and new universal tariffs in April 2025, monthly tariff payments by these midsize firms have tripled compared with early 2025 levels.

Decoupling is happening

If the primary objective of the trade policy was to reduce American reliance on Chinese manufacturing, the banking giant’s data suggests the strategy is working. Outflows from midsize U.S. firms to China have dropped by a...