More Americans will die than be born in 2030, CBO predicts—leaving immigrants as the only source of population growth

For the first time in modern history, the United States is on the brink of losing its most basic engine of growth: more births than deaths.

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Demographic Outlook, released Tuesday, the year 2030 marks a tipping point that will fundamentally reshape the  economy and social fabric. That’s the year the “natural” U.S. population—the balance of births over deaths—is projected to vanish. 

“Net immigration (the number of people who migrate to the United States minus the number who leave) is projected to become an increasingly important source of population growth in the coming years, as declining fertility rates cause the annual number of deaths to exceed the annual number of births starting in 2030,” the CBO writes. “Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030.”

From that point on, every additional person added to the U.S. population will come from immigration, a demographic milestone once associated with aging countries like Italy and Japan. 

The shift is striking not only for what it says about America’s rapidly aging society, but also for how soon it is expec...