Oil markets are bracing for $100 barrels and a redux of a 1970s-era crisis but ‘three times the scale,’ analyst warns

The U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran over the weekend has caused traffic disruptions to key trade passages like the Strait of Hormuz, escalating concerns of oil export blockages—and a potential repeat of the oil shock of the 1970s.

Oil prices spiked above $70 per barrel on Monday, while the international standard Brent crude hit $79. A key oil exporter, Iran shipped out an estimated 1.9 million barrels of crude per day, according to International Energy Agency data from December 2025. 

But the greater risk to energy markets is if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, among the most vital oil export chokepoints through which about 20% of the world’s petroleum liquid flows, amounting to about 20.9 million barrels per day. Though Iran has not officially closed the strait, Iranian missiles have hit some vessels, and major shipping companies have halted operations, effectively shutting down the trade corridor.

Danish shipping giant Maersk said in a statement on Sunday it would suspend vessel crossings in the Stra...