Ray Dalio says the U.S. is a ‘tinderbox’ after the Minneapolis shooting and Trump risks a ‘more clear civil war’

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new warning for the U.S.: We’re on a collision course toward repeating history.

The billionaire investor said that current national crises—from federal agents killing people in Minneapolis to the skyrocketing national debt—signal a transition to a more violent phase of the American “Big Cycle.”

“The United States is now a tinderbox,” he warned in a lengthy essay on X on Monday, titled “Money, Civil & International War, Minneapolis, and Beyond—in Perspective.” 

The post draws heavily on his 2021 book Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order, in which he analyzes 500 years of history to explain why some countries succeed and others fail, describing a six-stage, 80-year cycle that tracks the evolution of a society’s monetary, domestic, and international order. 

In his X post, Dalio said it is in the hands of President Donald Trump to pull away from, or step closer to, civil conflict. 

“Many people are waiting to see whether President Trump will continue to fight, which I believe would risk pushing us over the brink into a more clear civil war, or if he will make an attempt to pull us back from the brink by appealing for peace, promising and showing that the justice system will handle the shootings appropriately, and curtail IC...