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(CNN) — Time is ticking down to the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first forecast for it is finalized.
NOAA’s team of experts is predicting a below-average hurricane season, similar to other experts’ forecasts in recent weeks. The anticipated return of El Niño — and its potential to become historically strong — is a major driving force behind the outlook.
Overall, NOAA says this season has a 55% chance of being a below-average hurricane season with 35% and 10% chances of near-average and above-average seasons, respectively.
Between eight and 14 total named storms — that means tropical storms and hurricanes — are expected in the basin from June 1 through November 30, when the season ends.
Of those, NOAA expects between three and six to become hurricanes, with up to three of those reaching major hurricane status — Category 3 or higher. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
The last time NOAA forecast a below-average season was in 2015, which also had an El Niño. Twe...
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