The Iran war could last ‘deep into 2027’ as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t that closed, allowing more oil to leak out—but major escalation is likely soon

One of the hottest debates in the energy industry right now is how much oil is actually coming out of the Persian Gulf, and the answer could determine how long the Iran war lasts.

Iran insists the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that it has control of the narrow waterway, which saw 20 million barrels of oil a day pass through before the U.S. and Israel started the war.

But the Trump administration has pushed back on that narrative. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military helped ship over 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the strait on Tuesday, though the seven-day average is 8 million. When combined with oil exported by pipelines, the total leaving the region is closer to 20 million barrels, he posted on X on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Axios that about 10 million barrels of oil a day are being transported out of the strait through a corridor the U.S. military established that runs along Oman’s coast.

A two-week stretch of U.S. bombing last month degraded Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance systems, the report said, making it easier for tankers...