The Iran war is either concluding with the world worse off, or escalation is just delayed again

A fragile ceasefire agreement in the war began with bombs continuing to explode in Lebanon and contradictory statements about whether Iran will continue to control the critical Strait of Hormuz energy choke point.

But the most likely scenarios moving forward involve either Iran exerting more control over global energy markets than it did before the fighting started in March, or the current tenuous agreement merely delaying another military escalation by days or weeks, geopolitical and energy experts said.

There is a less likely “happy scenario” where global energy trade returns to normalcy—but even that will take until the end of this year because of supply-chain challenges—and where Iran is left weakened and militarily degraded for the long term, said Bob McNally, former White House energy advisor under President George W. Bush and founder of Rapidan Energy Group.

“We think the odds favor this ceasefire either not ever sticking or unraveling if it does,” McNally told Fortune, arguing the April 7 announcement of a two-...