The world is looking ahead toward a post-Iran oil market that offsets most Hormuz volumes in a few years as ships reject a U.S.-backed alternate route

Iran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place, but global oil markets could nearly eliminate their dependence on the contested waterway in a few years.

Despite more than a week of daily bombardment, the U.S. military has failed to secure an alternate corridor through the strait that bypasses Iran’s approved route, as the regime’s drones and missiles scare away commercial vessels.

On Friday, no crossings via the U.S.-backed route were detected, and no “shadow fleet” movements were recorded either, while Iran’s channel saw seven transits.

U.S. assurances have been insufficient. The military said over marine radio that “U.S. forces are prepared to maintain freedom of navigation and safeguard lawful commerce in accordance with international law. The southern route of the strait remains open.”

But one seafarer replied, “F— off,” according to a recording reviewed by the Wall Street Journal.

India has barred any Indian crew members from participating in transits through the strait until further notice, after an Iranian attack killed a sai...