Trump’s strikes on Iran could cost American economy as much as $210 billion, top budget expert says

As the United States enters day four of Operation Epic Fury—its sweeping military campaign against Iran, launched in partnership with Israel—the financial toll on American taxpayers is beginning to come into focus for budget watchers on the Beltway and in academia. According to Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) and one of the nation’s foremost fiscal analysts, the total economic cost of the strikes could reach as high as $210 billion.​

Smetters, whose model is widely used in Washington, D.C., to analyze the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of federal policy, has Beltway policy chops including a stint as an economist at the Congressional Budget Office and as deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury. He has advised Congress on dynamic scoring, and consults with policymakers from both parties on major tax and spending legislation. Smetters has described PWBM as a “sandbox” for legislators to workshop economic policy ideas.

The smallest number he gave to Fortune when asked about the cost of Epic Fury to taxpayers was $40 billion, for the smallest estimate of the direct budgetary cost, in a range that goes up to $95 billion. He said PWBM assume...