What global executives need to ask about China in 2026

2025 was a turbulent year for China. The country began the year battling geopolitical headwinds and weak domestic demand. By April, new tariffs and trade frictions triggered some of the most significant trade actions in decades.

Yet by November, the story had changed. China’s annual trade surplus passed $1 trillion, a record high. GDP growth remained steady at around 5%. The country seems to have shrugged off concerns of “deglobalization.”

What does 2026, the Year of the Horse, pose for China? The headlines may focus on Trump tariffs or real estate woes, but there are more subtle trends happening that will define China’s economic trajectory. China presents new challenges for international business, particularly from confident local competitors, but there are still opportunities for disciplined global executives. Five key questions will matter as the world’s second-largest economy navigates a fast-changing global economy.

How will tariff uncertainty shape your China strategy?

China has long dominated global manufacturing, thanks to its cost competitiveness and integrated supply chains. That strength remains intact despite higher U.S. tariffs in 2025, which have now stabilized at around 50%. The tariffs barely dented China’s trade: The country’s share of global goods exports held steady at around 14%, four times greater than India and Vietnam combined.

The reason is that China has a...