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The U.S., Israel, and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, but the sticker shock you’ve been feeling every time you go to the grocery store will get worse if the war continues. One of the first places you’ll feel it will be the produce aisle, experts say.
A Fortune analysis of produce wholesale prices from USDA data found grocery-cart staples such as tomatoes, bananas, and yellow onions have experienced significant price spikes since the war began. The United Nations reported its global food price index rose by 2.4% in March, the second consecutive month of rising prices.
“The big recent changes are the war causing spikes in diesel, fertilizer, and chemical prices,” Jeffrey Dorfman, professor of agricultural and resource economics at North Carolina State University, told Fortune.
USDA predicted food prices will increase by 3.6% in 2026, but soaring fuel prices should lead to an only 1% to 2% increase on produce, Dorfman said.