Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Severe weather chance increases for Thursday afternoon

An upper-level low pressure center will move over Central Arkansas this afternoon. This will occur as temperatures warm to close to 70°. The upper low is a pocket of cool air several thousand feet above the ground. Placing colder air over warm surface air will increase instability. And high instability is one of the ingredients for severe weather. This is going to be true, especially in the eastern part of Arkansas where the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight or Level 2 severe weather probability (15% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of any single point).

Hail is the biggest threat
An unstable atmosphere increases the potential for air to rise faster. If a thunderstorm forms in this atmosphere, it may have a strong updra...