Remove Tesla’s non-repeatable profits, and the stock has never been more expensive—now boasting a ‘core’ PE of 632

Somehow, Elon Musk managed to garner pretty good notices from both Tesla’s performance in Q4, unveiled after the market close on January 28, and the vision he detailed in the earnings call that followed. Wall Street analysts generally applauded the numbers as “a beat,” and investors didn’t seem overly disappointed, pushing shares just slightly lower at the open the following day.

Musk’s a bit like a playwright allowed to author a flop, then write the reviews—reviews so glowing that they make the audience forget what a mess they just sat through.

Specifically, the EV-maker’s CEO promises of a big pivot into Cybercabs and autonomous robots poised to set Tesla on a “mission of amazing abundance” succeeded once again in distracting folks and funds from numbers that, when you drill down, look shockingly bad. Tesla posted GAAP net earnings of $3.79 billion, down 75% from the peak of $15 billion for 2023. Why? EV revenues have plummeted 16% over the last two years, while overall operating expenses jumped 44%, blunting strong sales growth in batteries and services such as charging stations, two franchises that are too small to salvage the overall numbers, since combined they’re half the size of the EV side.

Tesla’s also piling on assets, notably f...