RFK Jr. and third parties could pose danger for Trump, polling suggests

Signs are emerging in recent polling that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates could pose trouble for Donald Trump now that President Biden isn’t at the top of the ticket.

For months, polling predicting a three-way race with Trump, Biden and Kennedy showed mixed signs in terms of which of the major-party candidates was hurt more by the independent’s presence. But often the Democratic candidate was the one losing more support.

But that has notably shifted since Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, with many polls showing her performing better when other candidates are included in the race. 

“With the head-to-head of Biden-Trump, that head-to-head seemed to be pretty baked in, but the third party was a problem for the Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “That no longer — if the data is to be believed, and it looks credible — seems to be the case.” 

Kennedy added an additional layer of uncertainty to the presidential race when he launched his independent bid for president last October after having briefly run for the Democratic nomination against Biden. 

A scion of the most famous family in American politics, Kennedy’s relative prominence distinguishes him ...