What bubble? JPMorgan says the $5.5 trillion AI capex explosion is profitable–for now

JPMorgan Global Research is doubling down on a central thesis for 2026: The surge in AI investment is not only durable, but increasingly profitable.

In its midyear outlook, the firm points to a broadening capital expenditure cycle anchoring growth expectations. At the center is the “AI upstream” build-out—data centers, chips, and supporting infrastructure—still heavily concentrated in the U.S., which commands about 85% of AI and machine learning venture capital. Spillover benefits are expected in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, given their roles in semiconductor supply chains.

JPMorgan now estimates total global AI-related capital expenditures will reach $5.5 trillion through 2030, up from $5.1 trillion. The increase reflects higher capacity expansion and a shift in financing. The bank raised its estimate for debt financing tied to the AI build-out to $4.1 trillion, citing higher loan-to-cost ratios.

But the scale of spending raises questions about whether AI demand will grow quickly enough to justify the capacity being built. While cloud providers such as Amazon, Google, and Read Entire Article