Has California housing become a buyer’s market?

Has California housing become a buyer’s market with sellers losing control of pricing?

My trusty spreadsheet reviewed a relatively new homebuying metric from Redfin that attempts to quantify the marketplace mystery: how many house hunters are looking to buy.

Redfin combines the easily calculated supply number – homes listed for sale – with some statistical wizardry to estimate the corresponding number of potential buyers. Gauging demand is the toughest core in almost any industry. Redfin’s calculations seem far better than those from gurus who mistakenly tell you that recent sales equal demand.

The latest results from December track 50 major U.S. markets – including eight from California. It’s relatively good news for house hunters.

By Redfin math, those eight Golden State markets had 35% more sellers – 72,840 vs. 54,045 buyers.

Redfin calls any market with at least 10% more sellers than buyers a buyer’s market. When there are at least 10% more buyers, that’s a seller’s market. In between is seen as balanced.

The 44 markets in the rest of the nation leaned even more heavily toward house hunters, with 43% more sellers: 617,753 vs. 433,119 buyers, also a buyer’s market.

Those extra choices should cheer house hunters and worry sellers about added competition. Of the 50 U.S. markets tracked, Redfin saw 36 favoring buyers.

Just five markets favor se...